- Failed coup impacts Turkey’s financial markets
- European Central Bank maintains monetary policy position
- Weak PMI data from the UK following Brexit
- IMF downgrades global and UK growth forecasts
- Japanese stimulus expectations continue following trade data
Imperium Capital Publication
Viewpoint – July 2016
Events in June, prior to the UK’s EU referendum on the 23rd, became somewhat irrelevant following the shock result. The market reaction was instant and dramatic, with sharp falls in sterling, global stock markets, government bond yields (especially those in the UK) and a flight to safe haven assets such as gold.
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Weekly Digest – 17 July 2016
- Strong US data pushes shares to record highs
- Continued expectations for Japanese stimulus; yen sells off
- China GDP growth on target
- European bank stocks rally
- Sovereign bond yields rise
Weekly Digest – 10 July 2016
- Abe’s coalition wins a landslide victory in Japanese elections
- US payrolls show 287,000 jobs created in June
- Chinese inflation slows
- Health of Italian banking sector of increasing concern
- Government bond yields continue to decline
Weekly Digest – 3 July 2016
- Rating agencies cut UK credit rating
- Global equity markets rebound
- European bank stock fragility continues
- Commodities record broad gains
- Mixed results in China’s monthly PMI data
Weekly Digest – 26 June 2016
- UK votes to leave the European Union; sterling depreciates
- Political backlash from referendum result
- Pessimism in global equity markets following UK vote
- Fresh record lows for government bond yields
- Flight to safe-haven assets sees gold rally
Viewpoint – June 2016
By far the most significant development in the month was the change in expectations for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in 2016. During May the probability of a rate rise for the June and July meetings increased from 12.0% and 26.1% at the start of the month to 24.0% and 52.9% at month end.
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Weekly Digest – 19 June 2016
- Global equities fall despite a late week rally
- “Brexit” polls suggest that the Remain camp has regained momentum
- Central banks keep rates on hold, as bond yields reach historic lows
- Greece attains additional bailout funding
- Gold price rises amid broad commodity losses
Weekly Digest – 12 June 2016
- Poor week for developed market equities
- European government bond yields at record lows
- Sterling volatility peaks
- Mixed Eurozone production data
- Chinese trade surplus increases once more
Weekly Digest – 05 June 2016
- Polls suggest lead for “Brexit”
- US payrolls show a mere 38,000 jobs added
- Poor week for European equities, while bunds rally
- Gold ends its losing streak; rallies on Friday
- Oil reaches USD 50 per barrel