The trade war-inspired sell-off in equity markets in May rapidly reversed in June, while yields on bonds continued the decline that started in late 2018, leaving nearly all asset classes in positive territory for the month. The US again led the way, returning 7.0% in June, taking the MSCI World index up 6.6%, while emerging markets participated fully in the rise, returning 6.2%. The notable laggard was Japan, up only 2.8%, while the UK was held back by Brexit worries, returning 4.0%. Bond markets also rallied strongly with most gaining 1-2% or in the case of emerging market bonds 4.1%.

To say we are living through extraordinary times is beyond dispute. The current economic expansion in the US is soon set to become the longest in history, employment growth in the US and elsewhere has been very strong, monetary policy across the developed world remains ultra-loose by any historical standard and yet inflation is still remarkably subdued. Indeed, recent falls in core inflation measures especially in the US have rattled investors and raised fears of weaker growth and tougher conditions for the corporate sector ahead, and in Europe and Japan of prolonged deflation. US inflation as measured by core PCE deflator has fallen to 1.6%, well below the Fed’s target of 2%, which has hardly been breached throughout the post crisis decade.